Hryvnia may fall again if the National Bank stops selling dollars

Dollar on the interbank market fell by 7-8 kopiykas, returning to the level of the beginning of the month, but experts believe that the retention of the rate at the expense of the National Bank provides only short-term effects.

Strengthening of the hryvnia rate was caused by its deficiency, partly provoked by National Bank, writes the "Kommersant-Ukraine".

After a sharp increase of the dollar rate early last week, an equally sharp drop of its quotations followed – in just two days hryvnia strengthened by 1%.

Forex indicator dropped from 8,277-8,296 UAH / USD on November 14 to 8,198-8,223 UAH / USD on November 16.

The boom, which has been observed since September and October, when Ukrainians were buying record amounts of currency (2,9-3,3 billion dollars) and the growth of the dollar on the interbank market forced the regulator to intervene.

"On the interbank market there is a huge demand and extremely low offer for dollars," – said the director of the National Bank Monetary Policy Department Olena Shcherbakova.

To meet the demand, November 14, the National Bank came in the interbank market with intervention at 7.993 / 8.05 UAH / USD.

According to bankers, from 30% to 50% of all applications were granted.

In addition, the National Bank worked through the Oshchadbank.

Despite the fact that the National Bank recognized the need for the introduction of a floating exchange rate, no one has the intention to let the currency float in the coming days.

This retention of the rate at the expense of the National Bank provides only short-term effects.

"At the end of November, we will likely see a sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank. Reportedly, its reserves are very close to 24 billion dollars. Another 1 or 2 billion dollars are in swaps" – said the managing partner of investment company "Capital Times" Eric Nyman.

Experts say that measures taken by the regulator provide only short-term effect, and once the National Bank stops selling dollars, hryvnia will fall again.

epravda.com.ua