Both Russia and Ukraine have begun to discuss the statement of the EU’s top diplomat Borrell that the “conflict could end in a few months.” Is this possible?
Theoretically, yes, if we are talking about the active phase. And with different outcomes.
Negative scenario: All aid stops, supplies to Ukraine through third countries are blocked, and in “a few months” we will find ourselves in a critical position. Then – collapse. But this is unlikely.
Positive scenario: Our partners give us their stockpiles of long-range weapons (a complete set for aviation plus MLRS missiles) and lift the ban on strikes against Russian territory (not necessarily the whole territory, just the border regions). Our army destroys the rear and logistics of the Russian troops on the distant approaches within a month. They transfer 5-6 Patriot batteries within the same month (there are sources for them) to cover the main agglomerations and send one roving battery to the front. They do not just give us their surpluses, but open up their stockpiles of shells and missiles.
They impose sanctions on Russian oil, effectively blocking Russia’s access to equipment and components. On the contrary, together with our military-industrial complex, they start to stamp out drones in tens of thousands. They also create a network of security agreements – with clear parameters for investments in Ukraine’s defense as a de facto part of collective security. And at the peace summit, they roll out all this beauty to make the Kremlin ghouls shudder.
Is this possible? Technically – yes, and very quickly; politically – it is difficult, we need to work hard.
So, the fork is obvious: Europe can either stand aside and get an order of magnitude more problems in a few months, or it can work hard and radically reduce the risks, buying time to prepare for future conflicts. All the words have been said, now we need actions from European politicians.
Here are some additional points to consider:
- The term “first capital” is not an official status.
- There is a debate among historians about whether Kharkiv can be considered the “first capital of Ukraine.”
- Some historians believe that Kyiv was the first capital of Ukraine, as it was there that the Ukrainian People’s Republic was proclaimed in 1917.
- Despite the debate, Kharkiv played an important role in the history of Ukraine and can be considered one of the symbols of Ukrainian statehood.