The IMF program is based on the exchange rate forecast not exceeding 22 UAH per dollar
The hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar by the end of this year will be 22 hryvnia per dollar, by the end of the next year - 22.7 hryvnia per dollar, these assumptions are incorporated in the program scenario of the new EFF program for Ukraine.
This is stated in the report of the International Monetary Fund Management.
According to it, by the end of 2017, the national currency rate will drop to 23.4 hryvnia to the dollar, then it will become almost stabilized, losing 0.1 hryvnia over the next three years.
The scenario also assumes that the gross international reserves of Ukraine will increase by the end of this year to 18.3 billion dollars, or 3.3 months of import coverage, and by the end of the next year - to 22.3 billion dollars, or 3.7 months of import.
In 2017, 2018 and 2019, their further increase is expected, respectively to 28.5 billion dollars, 35.2 billion dollars and 38.4 billion dollars, at which their size will stabilize corresponding to about five months of imports.
The increase in reserves and debt restructuring will help to increase coverage of short-term debt from 17.4% as of the end of the last year to 43.7% - at the end of this year, and 57.4% - at the end of the next year with stabilization at around 80% in 2018-2020.