Experts predict that hryvnia will collapse at the end of the year
The most likely rate of the national currency against the U.S. dollar is 8,8-9 UAH per dollar by the end of 2013. According to an UNIAN correspondent, this was stated at the roundtable by the financier, former Acting Finance Minister of Ukraine Igor Umansky and managing partner of investment company "Capital Times" Eric Nyman.
In particular, according to E.Nyman, the most likely forecast is 8.8 hryvnias per dollar by the end of 2013. "We need to consider the following things. First, the trade deficit - about 8 billion dollars. Secondly, the amount of currency bought by population. If in the pre-crisis period, this amount was equal to 2 billion dollars a year, now it is up to 10 billion dollars. Why? People vote with money for their personal choice and peace. The third point - 9 billion dollars that have to be paid for obligations in 2013. In total, we have about 27 billion dollars "in the red" - he said.
Among the sources of currency inflow to the country, the expert also mentioned transfers from guest workers - about 7 billion dollars, foreign direct investment - about 5 billion dollars, and market borrowings in the amount of 4.9 billion dollars. "If we attract the ceiling amount (in foreign markets - ed) equal to 9 billion, in total we will have 21 billion dollars "in the black". Provided that the population reduce the amount of currency purchases to the desirable 2 billion dollars, and we "close" the external debt, then we will need 1 billion dollars of foreign exchange reserves of the NBU to "cover" the difference. And then the exchange rate could be held at the current level of 8.0 per dollar. However, this is a very optimistic scenario" - E.Nyman says.
The pessimistic scenario, in his opinion, is much worse. "Provided that we attract the minimum amount of funds equal to $ 4 billion, while the amount of currency purchases by population remains the maximum - $ 10 billion, the payment "hole" will be no less than 16 billion dollars, which will have to be covered only from the reserves of the National Bank. And this means the sharp devaluation to 15-20 UAH per dollar, and maybe even lower - down to the Belarusian version of events" - E.Nayman said, adding that the pessimistic scenario could largely be driven by political nuances specific to Ukraine. I.Umansky is convinced that predicting the exchange rate at the end of 2013 in the Ukrainian reality is very difficult task. "Predicting the rate is ungrateful task, especially if exchange rate is characterized by the psychological aspect and the political nuances. But as for the risks and the approximate amount of problems to be solved in 2013, we have to understand: we really need to use external borrowing. And considering the debt of the corporate sector, there should be not even 9 billion, but 13-15 billion dollars.
In addition, the National Bank monetary policy and the ability of the regulator to clearly and reasonably communicate its position to the public and investors - domestic and foreign - will be of great importance," - I.Umansky said.
As UNIAN reported earlier, Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov at the meeting with representatives of foreign media ensured that the exchange rate in 2013 will remain stable. The average exchange rate indicated in the state budget at the level of 8,3-8,4 UAH per 1 dollar will be maintained. However, the World Bank (WB) in its report on the World Economic Outlook forecasts that the exchange rate in 2013 will reach the peak and will be 8.7 UAH per dollar against 8 UAH per dollar in 2012. In 2014, according to the World Bank, a gradual strengthening of the national currency - to 8.6 UAH per dollar - will begin. The projected dollar rate in 2015 will amount to 8.4 UAH / USD.