The election campaign did not affect the exchange rate

29 October 2012 12:38  4423478 024019
The election campaign did not affect the exchange rate

Forecasts of a sharp devaluation of the hryvnia before the elections did not materialize - the National Bank for its part used all possible tools. The further fate of the exchange rate will be determined within the current week. However, bankers do not see the reasons for the dollar to rise over 8.2 UAH.

The National Bank of Ukraine through its efforts to maintain a stable exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar increased the deficit of the national currency in the last days before the election to the Parliament.
Specifically, the average overnight cost ("night" loans - Ed.) reached 35.6% per annum. Short hryvnia has not been so expensive on the interbank market for more than 3.5 years, scince March 2009.
Bankers attribute the growth of the hryvnia deficit to NBU interventions.The National Bank was selling dollars through the "Oshchadbank" to meet the increased demand of banks, so hryvnia was withdrawn from the market, and its price has increased," - explainedd to "Kommersant-Ukraine" the Deputy Chairman - Treasurer of the "Subsidiary Bank of the Sberbank of Russia," Dmytro Zolotko.
However, the reaction of the National Bank was forced. "With the population and enterprises lately there is not excessive, but very high demand for dollars. The National Bank wanted at all costs to keep the price, so they were selling currency. In fact, now the market is being run manually, but it works. The situation, though not ideal, is under control" - said the treasurer of one of the banks.
Nevertheless, the national Bank reached its goal - they managed to prevent the plammeting of the exchange rate before elections - on Friday agreements on interbank market were within 8,166-8,171 UAH. The banks were selling currency to the population at 8,18-8,19 UAH / $.
On the cash market the preservation of a stable exchange rate was aided by the NBU threats to impose sanctions on banks and their executives - the regulator promised to take tough measures for refusing to sell cash foreign currency to natural persons, if it is available on hand.
Banks recognize that there are limitations in some offices, but these measures are forced.    
None of the banks dared to sell dollar at more than 8.2 UAH / $, but some Kyiv agency networks today were selling dollar at 8.3 UAH. "Agents are not banks, so they can set any price. It is amazing that people still go to them, even though the dollar price of bank branches is at least 10 kopiykas less," - said the director of the treasury of another bank.
The National Bank noted that speculators are trying to exploit the political uncertainty to disturb the spot currency market.
"This is typical behavior of the population - especially speculators - on the eve of the election. Once the elections are finished, the next month we will be working in the normal rhythm", - said the deputy head of the NBU Vira Rychakivska.
Bankers still promise to keep the dollar stable. "Cash currency exchange depends on non-cash one, which now stands at 8,16-8,17 UAH because banks have no reason to sell currency to the population at high prices. In addition, the NBU has the means to influence banks - Dmitry Zolotko said. - So far it is difficult to say what will happen in the near future - there is no reaction to the election. This week will tell all."


Tags: exchange rates, hryvnia, elections

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