The dollar rate must become "more flexible" - experts
Experts agree that the National Bank will ensure that the range of exchange rate fluctuations does not exceed 5%. Any larger depreciation will cause panic and uncontrolled devaluation.
Experts state that after the elections the dollar may become more flexible. Experts believe that the there will not be "free floating" in the currency market in the short term, but 10-percent fluctuation "corridor" could have a positive effect on the economy.
According to the experts, the most pessimistic forecast of exchange rate for the year is 8,8-9 UAH / USD. But the most likely scenario is the range of 8,3-8,5 UAH / USD.
Head of analytical department of the "Art Capital" Igor Putilin believes that the regulator will ensure that the range of exchange rate fluctuations does not exceed 5%.
Experts note that the major risk for a more flexible exchange rate policy of the NBU is "one-sided" flexibility, ie the downward movement of the hryvnia rate. As the treasurer of the Bank "Finance and Credit" Oleksandr Alexandrov notes, it may increase the demand for currency and cost of hryvnia resources on the market, plus as a consequence - limit lending to the real sector.
As one of the reputable local bankers predicted on condition of anonymity, the official information from the regulator on the 10 percent fluctuation "corridor" (5% up and down) could help to reduce rates on the resource market by 4-6% even in the short term.
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