Experts believe that hryvnia will fall

11 October 2012 16:41  6422384 022918
Experts believe that hryvnia will fall

As soon as in early 2013 one dollar in Ukraine will cost 10 hryvnias.

This was stated by former economy minister Serhiy Teryokhin, informs "Radio Svoboda".

"Hryvnia exchange rate will fall, if the National Bank does not buy large amounts of currencies" - said the deputy Teryokhin.

He also noted that since Ukraine's trade balance is negative, then the rate can be held only by the sale of gold and foreign currency reserves which amount to about 29 billion dollars.

"If the foreign exchange reserves will be at 25-28 billion in January 2013 the rate will be equal to 10", - said the former economy minister.

He reminded that in early 2013 Ukraine will have to pay about $ 11 billion under external obligations, and they can only take the money from the gold and foreign currency reserves.

Also according to the Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, the stability of hryvnia depends on the foreign exchange reserves of National Bank, and they are stable, assures the head of government.

Azarov thinks that, therefore, all the predictions about the fall of hryvnia are just attempts to harm them.

However, the director of sovereign ratings group of Fitch Ratings Charles Seville also noted the possibility of 10% fall of hryvnia.

He said that when officials, including Prime Minister Azarov, stae that hryvnia will remain stable, the transition to a more flexible exchange rate would benefit Ukraine in the medium term.

According to Charles Seville, the drop will not reach "the 2008 level" when hryvnia collapsed by 35%.

This year hryvnia depreciated only by 1.2%.

Ukraine's international reserves fell by 2.5% last month, while the National Bank spent $ 1.8 billion to support the hryvnia.

As previously reported, because of the currency panic Ukrainians in September bought nearly $ 2 billion.

Tags: exchange course, hryvnia, forecasts

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