Inflation in Ukraine is estimated to reach 4.5% in 2012. Internal and external situation helps to reduce the inflation forecast, the analyst of "Erste Bank" Marian Zablocki believes, reports portal finance.ua.
He also does not expect prices for utilities to become higher but believes that to ensure all budget expenditures some excise taxes will have to be raised.
Record harvest of last year, according to the analyst, has allowed a sufficient food supply and reduction of its prices. Strengthening of the U.S. dollar against other currencies and fixed exchange rate of hryvnia are complemented by high loan interest rates, which restrains the growth of crediting in general.
On the other hand, the decline in prices for oil and other essential goods has also contributed to the inflation reduction.
Among risks the analyst calls the decline in expenses of public sector, which has a negative impact on GDP, and the weather conditions, which will cause problems in agro-industry.
Note, for 4 months in 2012 inflation in Ukraine was 0.7%, in April – 0%. According to the State Statistics Service, inflation in April 2011 was 0.6%.